Return-to-maturity expectations

A variant of pure expectations theory which suggests that the return that an investor will realize by rolling over short-term bonds to some investment horizon will be the same as holding a zero-coupon bond with a maturity that is the same as that investment horizon.

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Rational expectations
The idea that people rationally anticipate the future and respond to what they see ahead.

Pure expectations theory
A theory that asserts that the forward rates exclusively represent the expected future rates. In other words, the entire term structure reflects the markets expectations of future short-term rates. For example, an increasing sloping term structure implies increasing short-term interest rates. Related: biased expectations theories

Local expectations theory
A form of the pure expectations theory which suggests that the returns on bonds of different maturities will be the same over a short-term investment horizon.

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Preferred habitat theory

A biased expectations theory that believes the term structure reflects the expectation of the future path of interest rates as well as risk premium. However, the theory rejects the assertion that the risk premium must rise uniformly with maturity. Instead, to the extent that the demand for and supply of funds does not match for a given maturity range, some participants will shift to maturities ...


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